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    It Will Fluctuate

    by Peter Hargreaves

    07 Feb 2022

    John Pierpoint Morgan (JP Morgan), at the end of 19th Century when asked “what’s the market going to do”, the great man is reputed to have (without breaking stride) turned and responded “it will fluctuate”.

    That is precisely what anyone knows about the short term prospects for any stock market.

    As a broken clock is right twice a day, those doom mongers amongst stock market pundits will occasionally get it right over the short term. But following the market collapse at the commencement of the pandemic the disciples of doom mongers would have watched the Dow Jones index nearly double from 20,000 to 37,000.

    We saw another long predicted correction in January this year. Just like when the tide goes out all boats fall, similarly the shake out of the very optimistically valued leading edge technology stocks shook the whole market. We saw the US guru of tech Cathie Wood’s $23 billion fund fall nearly 50%. That sort of shake out could not fail to influence stock markets.

    There are several very large companies in the USA collectively called the FAANGs and, less accurately, “Big Tech”. Companies like Alphabet (Google) are in that bracket. They aren’t technology stocks in the true sense - they merely make excellent use of tried and tested technology, mainly the internet. In total conflict with its previous mark down of its stock price Google reported good results as recently as the 1st of February boosting its share price by about 10%.

    In January I saw the value of my personal holding in Blue Whale funds fall considerably. However, if my 50 years in the stock market has taught me anything, it is that these sharp falls rarely spell long term market malaise. In a long term graph of the stock market, Black Monday in 1987, the bursting of the “tech bubble” in 2000, and the financial crash of 2007 register as blips. People selling out during and after the fall (be it this latest fall in January, or in the aforementioned examples) rarely time their re-entry to take advantage of the likely (and in previous cases, anecdotal) rebound. 

    As always, I have sat tight. The brave amongst you may double up - the stocks clearly represent much better value than they did on January the 1st.

    Investors have to remember markets never behave in an orderly fashion. They fluctuate on fear and greed. The long term lesson I have learned is never panic and react - especially when the market has overreacted.

     

    Please note that the information provided in this article is not to be construed as advice and any views we express on holdings do not constitute investment recommendations and must not be viewed as such. If you are unsure as to the suitability of an investment for your circumstances, please seek independent financial advice. Investments can go down in value as well as up so you may get back less than you invested. Your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.