Timing investments is hard at the best of times, but during volatile or depressed markets it can be even tougher. In our recent survey of Blue Whale subscribers, over 30% of respondents admitted to agonizing over the exact timing of their investments. Less than 25% of respondents thought we had reached the bottom of the market, whilst 25% believed that further falls were likely.
Pound Cost Averaging is a strategy that can be used by investors who are worried about timing their investment in challenging markets. However, 20% of our survey respondents were not familiar with Pound Cost Averaging, and 30% of those who were, had never utilised it to invest.
Investors who can accurately time the tops and bottoms of markets (either through luck or through skill and judgement) will not benefit from this approach. However, by staggering investment, some of the effect of rising and falling markets over the period of your purchases can be smoothed out by buying some shares at lower prices if the market falls, but ensuring you are at least partially invested at the lower levels if the market rises. 64% of survey respondents who have used, or would use Pound Cost Averaging to invest, indicated they intended to do so over the next 12 months.
Pound Cost Averaging involves taking a lump sum and investing it regularly over a period of time. As an example, an investor with £1,200 to invest could do so over a period of 12 months, investing £100 each month. The total cost of the investment would be the average of the 12 monthly investments, as opposed to the single price obtained, if the £1,200 were invested as a lump sum at the beginning of the period.
It should be noted that Pound Cost Averaging is most effective if the market experiences further falls from the point of the initial investment, when compared with a lump sum investment. Investors must recognise that Pound Cost Averaging may result in a higher purchase price if the market trends upwards from the point at which a single lump sum would have been invested.
Below you can see three examples of Pound Cost Averaging in practice.
Investment date | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Price | £1.00 | £0.95 | £0.92 | £0.84 | £0.80 | £0.82 | £0.79 | £0.87 | £0.94 | £0.95 | £0.97 | £1.00 |
Total invested | £100 | £200 | £300 | £400 | £500 | £600 | £700 | £800 | £900 | £1,000 | £1,100 | £1,200 |
Total units | 100.00 | 205.26 | 313.96 | 433.01 | 558.01 | 679.96 | 806.54 | 921.48 | 1027.87 | 1133.13 | 1236.22 | 1336.22 |
Total +/- | £0.00 | -£5.00 | -£11.16 | -£36.27 | -£53.59 | -£42.43 | -£62.83 | £1.69 | £66.19 | £76.47 | £99.13 | £136.22 |
PCA value | £100.00 | £195.00 | £288.84 | £363.73 | £446.41 | £557.57 | £637.17 | £801.69 | £966.19 | £1,076.47 | £1,199.13 | £1,336.22 |
Investment date | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Price | £1.00 | £0.98 | £0.95 | £0.92 | £0.82 | £0.88 | £0.85 | £0.83 | £0.83 | £0.81 | £0.78 | £0.75 |
Total invested | £100 | £200 | £300 | £400 | £500 | £600 | £700 | £800 | £900 | £1,000 | £1,100 | £1,200 |
Total units | 100.00 | 202.04 | 307.30 | 416.00 | 537.95 | 651.59 | 769.23 | 889.72 | 1010.20 | 1133.65 | 1261.86 | 1395.19 |
Total +/- | £0.00 | -£2.00 | -£8.06 | -£17.28 | -£58.88 | -£26.60 | -£46.15 | -£61.54 | -£61.54 | -£81.74 | -£115.75 | -£153.60 |
PCA value | £100.00 | £198.00 | £291.94 | £382.72 | £441.12 | £573.40 | £653.85 | £738.46 | £838.46 | £918.26 | £984.25 | £1,046.40 |
Investment date | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Price | £1.00 | £1.01 | £1.04 | £1.04 | £1.08 | £1.07 | £1.09 | £1.14 | £1.15 | £1.20 | £1.22 | £1.25 |
Total invested | £100 | £200 | £300 | £400 | £500 | £600 | £700 | £800 | £900 | £1,000 | £1,100 | £1,200 |
Total units | 100.00 | 199.01 | 295.16 | 391.32 | 483.91 | 577.37 | 669.11 | 756.83 | 843.79 | 927.12 | 1,009.09 | 1089.09 |
Total +/- | £0.00 | £1.00 | £6.97 | £6.97 | £22.62 | £17.78 | £29.33 | £62.79 | £70.36 | £112.54 | £131.09 | £161.36 |
PCA value | £100.00 | £201.00 | £306.97 | £406.97 | £522.62 | £617.78 | £729.33 | £862.79 | £970.36 | £1,112.54 | £1,231.09 | £1,361.36 |
In August 2022, we started an investment via Pound Cost Averaging into the WS Blue Whale Growth Fund (I Accumulation Sterling class unit). We have committed to invest £10,000 every month for the next year. The table below shows the point at which each investment has taken place (the 1st of the month, or next business day), mapping the ongoing profit and loss over time.
We are running this exercise over the course of a year in order to see a year of investee company reporting and subsequent price evolution. In addition, we will observe a year of policy and economic updates to see how these affect equity prices. We also chose a 12 month period on the basis of research from Yardeni Research, who established that the average bear market (based on the S&P 500 since 1950) lasted just over a year – 388 days, allowing us to run the experiment over the average duration of depressed markets.
Investment date | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Price | 167.26p | 164.14p | 152.00p | 162.23p | 165.60p | 158.57p | 167.74p | 170.14p | 171.92p | 170.93p | 176.13p | 183.00p |
Total invested | £10,000 | £20,000 | £30,000 | £40,000 | £50,000 | £60,000 | £70,000 | £80,000 | £90,000 | £100,000 | £110,000 | £120,000 |
Total units | 5,979 | 12,071 | 18,650 | 24,814 | 30,853 | 37,159 | 43,121 | 48,998 | 54,815 | 60,665 | 66,343 | 71,807 |
PCA value | £10,000 | £19,813 | £28,348 | £40,256 | £51,092 | £58,923 | £72,331 | £83,365 | £94,238 | £103,695 | £116,850 | £131,408 |
Total +/- |
Live valuation* |
---|
232.71p |
£120,000 |
71,807 |
£167,102 |
£47,102 |
*Prices as at 19 April 2024
At Blue Whale it is our belief that the best opportunity for investors in equities in these uncertain times lies with those companies that have a history of profitability in areas subject to structural tail winds. The key theme in the portfolio is global digitisation, but there are others – growing middle class globally, wealth creation in the emerging markets and development of onshore supply chains.
Our view is that the companies we have selected will maintain high gross margins and offer great pricing power without compromising on quality and will be the net beneficiaries of a world that faces inflation and possible recession. These companies can be found in the WS Blue Whale Growth Fund.
Please note that nothing on this website or on this page should be construed as financial advice. We do not give investment advice so you need to decide if an investment is suitable for you. Depending on market action pound cost averaging may result in a higher purchase price. If you are unsure whether to invest or whether to use pound cost averaging you should contact a financial adviser.